Model Prediction of Potential Disease Effects from PM2.5 Emission Among School Children in Coming 30 years in South Tangerang

Abstract

Background: The largest global environmental health risk factor is the ambient of air pollution, that largely attributed to transportation emissions. One of the main causes of PM2.5 emissions is thought to be onroad transportation. PM2.5 has an impact on health, especially on children that relate to the respiratory system such as asthma, lung cancer, and decreased intelligence. Objective: The research objective was to predict the risk potential disease due to PM2.5 in children from vehicle emissions in South Tangerang City. Method: This research is an observational analytic study with a cross-sectional study design using a dynamic model approach using STELLA software. The environmental and human samples aare used to calculate the exposure level to PM2.5 taken from 32 points in 7 sub-districts of South Tangerang City (North Serpong, Serpong, Pondok Aren, Ciputat, East Ciputat, Pamulang, and Setu). then, meteorological data was also collected. Results: The number of vehicles in the city of South Tangerang is quite high, especially between 11:00 and 15:00 with the majority of vehicles passing by are cars and motorbikes. PM2.5 pollution levels will fluctuate until 2053. The effects of temperature, weather, and humidity might cause an increase in PM2.5 pollutants at specific times. According to the modeling calculation results, even though there are occasions when PM2.5 pollution levels fall, acute respiratory infection (ARI) incidence in children will continue to rise over time. Although PM2.5 emissions fluctuate, exposure to PM2.5 in low concentrations poses a risk to human health. Key words: Children, Transportation, Particulate matter, Acute respiratory infection