The Estimation of Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

Abstract Indonesia is among the countries affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and DKI Jakarta Province recorded the highest number of deaths. This study aimed to analyze the excess mortality across five administrative cities in Jakarta stratified by gender to assess the pandemic impact on mortality. The monthly mortality data from January 2018 to December 2020 was obtained through government sources. This data helped to measure excess mortality by estimating the baseline mortality had the COVID-19 pandemic not occurred. The analysis used a linear mixed model because of its ease and flex ibility in forecasting subject-specific mortality. The results showed 13,507 or 35% excess deaths in Jakarta [95% CI: 11,636 to 15,236] between June and December 2020. The excess numbers were found relatively higher among men than women. Furthermore, Jakarta has underreported the COVID-19 deaths at least seven times higher than the reported number of confirmed deaths. Keywords: baseline mortality, COVID-19, excess mortality, linear mixed model, subject-specific