Population vulnerability to heat: A case crossover analysis of heat health alerts and hospital morbidity data in Victoria, Australia

Abstract

Population vulnerability to heat: A case crossover analysis of heat health alerts and hospital morbidity data in Victoria, Australia Tilda N. Thomson,1,2, * Rayiky Rupasinghe,2 Daneeta Hennessy,2 Marion Easton,2 Tony Stewart,1 Vanora Mulvenna2 1 National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia 2 Public Health Division, Victorian Department of Health, Melbourne, Australia Submitted: 19 May 2023; Revision requested: 21 August 2023; Accepted: 5 September 2023 Abstract Objective: From 2010 to 2022, the Victorian Department of Health operated a heat health alert system. We explored whether changes to morbidity occurred during or directly after these alerts, and how this differed for certain population groups. Methods: We used a space-time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression to examine the associations between heat health alerts and heat-related and all-cause emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital admissions at the state-wide level, with models created for the whole population and subgroups. Data were included for the warm season (November-March) from 2014 to 2021. Results: Increases occurred in heat-related ED presentations (OR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.53-1.96) and heat-related hospital admissions (OR 1.23, 95% CI: 1.16-1.30) on days on or after heat health alerts. Effect sizes were largest for those 65 years and older, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, and those living in the most disadvantaged areas. Conclusions: We confirm that increases in morbidity occurred in Victoria during heat health alerts and describe which population groups are more likely to require healthcare in a hospital. Implications for Public Health: These findings can inform responses before and during periods of extreme heat, data-driven adaptation strategies, and the development of heat health surveillance systems. Key words: environmental epidemiology, heat-related illness, case-crossover study, extreme heat