Luteal phase progesterone and estradiol concentrations and their relation to the outcome of IVF/ICSI cycles with controlled ovarian stimulation

Abstract

Luteal phase progesterone and estradiol concentrations and their relation to the outcome of IVF/ICSI cycles with controlled ovarian stimulation P. Bakas1, M. Simopoulou1, P. Panagopoulos2, N. Salakos1, Ch. Siristatidis2 12nd Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Aretaieion Hospital, University of Athens, Athens 23rd Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Attiko Hospital, University of Athens, Athens (Greece) Summary Purpose of Investigation: To examine if the potential changes in progesterone (P) and estradiol (E2) levels during the luteal phase can predict the outcome in IVF/ICSI cycles. Material and Methods: A prospective study of 282 patients with infertility undergoing IVF/ICSI have been included. Serum E2 and P measurements at day of hCG triggering and days 6 and 10 after embryo transfer in conception and non-conception cycles. Results: The ROC curve in predicting clinical pregnancy was calculated at 0.864 (95% CI: 0.841- 0.92). A maximum reduction of ≤ 32 % demonstrated sensitivity of 84.3% and specificity of 80.4%. The corresponding ROC curve for percentage change in P levels was 0.733 with 95% CI: 0.334-0.96. Conclusion: A maximum reduction of 32 % in E2 levels between days 6 and 10 after embryo transfer demonstrated a predictive ability for clinical pregnancy after IVF/ICSI of 86.4% with sensitivity 84.3% and specificity 80.4%. Key words: Estradiol; Progesterone; Ganirelix; Controlled ovarian stimulation; COS; IVF; ICSI.